2006 NFL Week 4 Match-Up Picks

Week 4 Predictions

Last Week's Record: 9-5 (64.3%)
Season Record: 31-15 (67.4%)
Locks of the Week: 4-1 (80%)

A busy week for me, so I was unable to do this on Thursday like usual. Last week was going great, with only three wrong picks going into the Sunday night game. Then the Patriots and Falcons both disappointed me. There goes my perfect record for locks.

This week does not have as many challenging games to decide on, but there are still some great match ups. Here’s to hoping this week I am back at the 75% or better mark.


Arizona at Atlanta

Thanks a lot ESPN for saying Matt Lienart was going to start then saying Kurt Warner is after all the next day. Does it really matter? It might, since the Falcons are coming off a horrible performance against New Orleans. This game could potentially be a sloppy one, but the Falcons should squeak one out.

Pick: Atlanta Falcons

Dallas at Tennessee

Thanks a lot ESPN for saying Terrell Ownes tried to commit suicide, only to be proven wrong later that day. Does it really matter? No, since the Cowboys will be visiting the lowly Titans. Dallas wins, by a lot.

Pick: Dallas Cowboys

Indianapolis at N.Y. Jets

Another easy game found its way on to the Colts schedule. The Jets are improved, but they do not have the ability hang with Peyton and Co. This one should be put away early, unless Chad Pennington has a big day.

Pick: Indianapolis Colts

Miami at Houston

Mario Williams is a waste of space. I can only imagine what their weekly radio talk shows are like concerning him versus, say, Reggie Bush. They will have more to complain about this week after the Dolphins get back to .500 at their expense.

Pick: Miami Dolphins

Minnesota at Buffalo

Logic would say the Bills bounce back like they did in week two and pick up a win. But the Vikings are coming off a tough loss and should rebound nicely. The game should be close, with the Vikings on the better end of another 3-point game.

Pick: Minnesota Vikings

New Orleans at Carolina

Are the Saints for real? If they beat the Panthers this week, the answer must be yes. But to win on the road, again, for third time in four weeks would be impressive. It might have been possible two weeks ago, but with Steve Smith back, the Panthers should prevail.

Pick: Carolina Panthers

San Diego at Baltimore

Both teams are undefeated, but one team is clearly more dominant. The Chargers should open up an assault the Ravens’ defense, with LaDainian Tomlinson rushing for at least 100 yards. Phillip Rivers might have the easiest job in football.

Pick: San Diego Chargers

San Francisco at Kansas City

Does it matter who wins this game? Maybe for draft pick reasons in the off-season, but otherwise the game is pointless. It should be close, but with the Chiefs still lacking Trent Green at quarterback, a one-dimensional offense will keep them from pointing up a lot of points.

Pick: San Francisco 49ers

Detroit at St. Louis

The Rams are a surprising 2-1. What makes it more impressive is that their offense has not really been clicking. Their defense, to the surprise of many, has been the difference maker. The Lions, well, they find a way to lose every week. This week will be no different.

Pick: St. Louis Rams

Cleveland at Oakland

Talk about a game no one wants to watch outside their respective fan bases. The teams have a combined zero wins. Their quarterbacks have been sacked about a million times already a piece. Someone has to lose, and the Raiders are the right team for the job.

Lock Pick of the Week: Cleveland Browns

Jacksonville at Washington

Who the heck is Maurice Jones-Drew? He popped off a 100-yard game against the Colts last week, splitting time with Fred Taylor. If this duo can be as successful as they were last week, rushing for almost 180 yards combined, they should have no trouble with the Redskins.

Lock Pick of the Week: Jacksonville Jaguars

New England at Cincinnati

After the first two weeks, I said there was something wrong with the Patriots. I did not think it would matter, and they would win anyway. Turns out that was proven wrong. Unless Bill Belichick has something magical under his hat, the Bengals will have no trouble humbling the Patriots.

Pick: Cincinnati Bengals

Seattle at Chicago

The best two teams in the NFC square off in what could be a classic. There are legitimate arguments for both teams on why they should win. Earlier in the week, I would have picked the Seahawks. But with the Madden Curse taking out Shaun Alexander, the Bears should be able to shut down the Seahawk offense enough to win this battle.

Pick: Chicago Bears

Green Bay at Philadelphia

This is a Monday Night game? At least it will be fun to watch, as both quarterbacks should go over 300 yards passing. If the over under on the game is for a total of 50 points, I would take the over. So who wins? Flip a coin, or look at the team who at least has an average defense.

Pick: Philadelphia Eagles

And like last week, if you want some other thoughts, check out the following sites.
ESPN Experts' Picks
Sunshine Forecast Free Weekly Picks

NFL Power Rankings after Week 3

Dominant teams are called so for a reason. Most of the teams in the top 10 did their job this week, though a few stumbled. There it was a bad week or a sign of things to come, it is too early to tell. Only one thing is certain – the Madden Curse is alive and well. Just ask Shaun Alexander

and his broken foot.

1. Chicago Bears – (3-0, Last Week: 1) The Vikings gave them a run for their money, but the Bears found a way to win the end. Rex Grossman still looked pretty darn good, leading his team to a fourth quarter comeback. Next up is the Alexander-less Seahawks, in a true test of two elite NFC teams.

2. Cincinnati Bengals – (3-0, Last Week: 2) Delivering a hard uppercut to the jaw of the defending champs sent a statement to the entire league – we were robbed last year, and we are out to take what is ours. Look out Patriots – you’re next.

3. Seattle Seahawks – (3-0, Last Week: 4) The offensive juggernaut finally awoke this week against the Giants. Sure, the defense got lax and let the Giants put up 30, but it did not matter. And this team has not even utilized Deion Branch yet. But oh, one problem – no Alexander for a solid month.

4. Indianapolis Colts – (3-0, Last Week: 6) Continuing their dominance on their divisional foes, the Colts handled the Jaguars. The game was somewhat close, but Peyton did his job and picked up the win. Who is going to slow this team down?

5. San Diego Chargers – (2-0, Last Week: 5) The Chargers did not win this week. Oh, wait, they didn’t play. That comes next week, when they kill and stuff the Ravens. The only question will be which will shine brighter, the offense or defense.

6. Jacksonville Jaguars – (2-1, Last Week: 3) Bryon Leftwich couldn’t big up that elusive win in Indy. They fought hard, and only came up a touchdown short. The team should bounce back well against a disappointing Washington team.

7. Baltimore Ravens – (3-0, Last Week: 8) A win is a win, right? For this week, it will have to be, as the Ravens squeak by the Browns on a last minute field goal. If they can beat the Chargers, then they can finally say they beat someone.

8. Denver Broncos – (2-1, Last Week: 14) Maybe the offense does not look the best. The defense, however, is a site to behold. Only one touchdown given up in three games. As long as Jake Plummer can put up 17 points a game, that should be enough for 13 wins.

9. Minnesota Vikings – (2-1, Last Week: 9) They took the Bears to the wire and almost came away with a win. Losing to the king of the mountain by only three points is nothing to be upset about, though it would have given them first place in the NFC North. They should find a way to win by three against the Bills next week.

10. Pittsburgh Steelers – (1-2, Last Week: 7) Two tough loses in as many weeks. This team is still one of the best in the league, even if their record does not show it. Big Ben needs to use this bye week to get back up to speed, otherwise, this team may not be playoff bound.

11. Dallas Cowboys – (1-1, Last Week: 12) The Cowboys move up after their impressive win over the lowly Titans. Wait, you said that game hasn’t happened yet? Sorry to spoil the ending for you. Now you don’t have to watch it.

12. Philadelphia Eagles – (2-1, Last Week: 16) The Eagles bounced back nicely and stomped a mud hole in the 49ers early. Although they did surrender a lot of points in the second half, again. Andy Reid had better get his team to stop playing 30 minutes of football.

13. New York Jets – (2-1, Last Week: 18) Is this team for real? Are the Bills for real? Not sure about either one, but the Jets came out the victors. They have played three solid games so far. Do it against the Colts this week, and maybe I’ll be impressed.

14. Atlanta Falcons – (2-1, Last Week: 10) What happened? That wasn’t supposed to happen. The Falcons were supposed to run over the Saints, not vice versa. Forcing Michael Vick to throw every down is like watching a 300-pound man dance without his shirt on - disgusting.

15. New England Patriots – (2-1, Last Week: 11) How is it that Tom Brady has a near perfect record against the Colts, and a near winless record against the Broncos? I guess that is the way the game is. The Patriots better rebound quickly, or the Bengals will tear them apart.

16. New Orleans Saints – (3-0, Last week: 20) Oh when the Saints, come marching in. Oh when the Saints come marching in… yeah, you get the point. The Saints continue to shock the world, and NFL analysts, as they remain undefeated.

17. Carolina Panthers – (1-2, Last Week: 19) It is about time. And if not for a last second field goal, that time may have never come. At least Steve Smith is back. They had better beat the Saints next week, or its back to the bottom of the rankings with them.

18. St. Louis Rams – (2-1, Last Week: 22) The offense is not pretty, but the defense is quietly doing a fine job. Now just imagine a Rams team that had both its offense and defense working at the same time. Yes, just keep imagining, because it might not happen.

19. Arizona Cardinals – (1-2, Last Week: 17) Poor Kurt Warner. Losing his job in only three weeks time. Maybe Matt Leinart can do the job. Or maybe the Cardinals are still the good old bad Cardinals we know and don’t care about.

20. Green Bay Packers – (1-2, Last Week: 25) Brett Favre makes it two weeks in a row of being a fantasy football god. The defense is awful, plain and simple. Look for another shoot out next week against the Eagles.

21. New York Giants – (1-2, Last Week: 15) Well I said I bumped them too high last week. Glad they reminded me how bad they are. Who cares if Eli throws for that many yards and touchdown when his interceptions in the first half took his team out of the game in the first place?

22. Buffalo Bills – (1-2, Last Week: 13) Not sure which team was more disappointing, these guys or the Giants. Based on the fact that at least the Giants have a more consistent offense, the Bills take the bigger fall from mediocrity.

23. Washington Redskins – (1-2, Last Week: 26) Well, at least we know they can dominate the Texans. Too bad the Jaguars are coming to town next week.

24. Miami Dolphins – (1-2, Last Week: 23) Wow. They squeaked by the Titans. That was impressive. Not. What else is there to say besides at least they got Houston next week.

25. San Francisco 49ers – (1-2, Last Week: 21) Well they fought until the end, but another loss for the 49ers. Alex Smith quietly has had three solid games in a row. He might just be a viable NFL quarterback after all.

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – (0-3, Last Week: 29) Well they finally put some real points on the board. They wanted a win just as bad as Carolina did. Chris Simms was a warrior until he was dragged off the field. Unfortunately, tenacity does not always mean a win.

27. Kansas City Chiefs – (0-2, Last Week: 24) Still no Trent Green, so who knows what the offense will be like. Hopefully the bye week gave them time to develop a game plan.

28. Cleveland Browns – (0-3, Last Week: 28) So close, yet so far away. They had the Ravens on the ropes. All they had to do was deliver a knock out punch. The problem is they missed, and Matt Stover countered with a 50-yard game winning field goal.

29. Tennessee Titans – (0-3, Last Week: 30) Like the Browns, they came close to victory. Then Miami finally found a way to win. The Vince Young era will begin soon. That might be the only way that the Titans get any serious TV time.

30. Houston Texans – (0-3, Last Week: 27) Whose the remedy for any team’s offensive woes? The Texans, of course. The Redskins explode for 31 points against a defense that was supposed to be improved. Mario Williams has a huge game – two tackles, one assist. Let me hold back my excitement.

31. Detroit Lions – (0-3, Last Week: 31) How bad are the Lions? I mean surely they were favored against the lowly Packers. But no, they lose to them as well. I wonder when Josh McCown will get a chance to lose some games.

32. Oakland Raiders – (0-2, Last Week: 32) Ah the Raiders. I heard a high school football team beat them this week during practice. No? That was just a nightmare? If they actually took on a high school team, it might become a reality.

If you want, compare my rankings to those of ESPN. Or as they are better known, the Peyton Manning Fan Club.
ESPN’s Power Rankings

2006 NFL Week 3 Match-Up Picks

Last Week's Record: 12-4 (75%)
Season Record: 22-10 (68.8%)
Locks of the Week: 3-0 (100%)

Here we stand, two weeks into the season, and everyone’s favorite NFC Super Bowl representative, Carolina, looks to be out of it already. They have a 0-2 count on them - one more strike and their out. On the flip side in the division, the Atlanta Falcons look like they will break the single season team rushing record. It’s still early, and lots of things can happen, but some teams might as well start playing for next year.

As for my own record, I had a better week, going 12-4. One of those losses came as a shock, and Philadelphia blew a 17-point lead in the fourth quarter. The Steelers laid a goose egg as well – but being a Cleveland Browns fan, I was happy being wrong about that one.

This week should be tough, but I think I have the answers.

Carolina at Tampa Bay

Playoffs?! Playoffs?! You got to be kidding me! Playoffs?! …That is probably the thoughts on both coaches right now, whether they want to admit it or not. Both teams made the playoffs last season. Both teams are 0-2. Whoever losses are almost certainly done for this season. Who wants it more? Better question – which team has scored more than three points in two games?

Pick: Carolina Panthers

Chicago at Minnesota

Chicago looks unbeatable. Rex Grossman has the league’s highest passer rating. The defense is its usual dominant self. On the other side, the Vikings have won two games against playoff teams from the year before. The ancient Brad Johnson leads a bunch of no name players, but the team wins, and that is what counts. This week, however, there will not be a trick play to save them against the ferocious Bears.

Pick: Chicago Bears

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh

The Steelers are not unbeatable. Big Ben looked human. The defense is still stout, but they need to score points to win. Carson Palmer and the Bengals will be coming to town looking for one thing – payback. They were a knee injury away from making a Super Bowl run of their own last season. They let the Steelers know who the champs should have been.

Pick: Cincinnati Bengals

Green Bay at Detroit

Brett Favre had a stellar game last week, and the Packers still lost. Roy Williams made a guarantee to score 40 points, and they scored seven. Which team can actually find a way to win? No one outside of Wisconsin or Michigan will be watching to find out, but home field advantage will be enough to give the Lions a win.

Pick: Detroit Loins

Jacksonville at Indianapolis

The Jaguars are for real? Yeah, they are, and they were last year too. They beat a good Dallas team, and followed it up by beating the champs. The Colts are coming off a cheap win against one of the league’s worst teams. Bryon Leftwich wins this game, and that other seven percent of Jacksonsville fans that Leftwich said does not like him will finally respect him. His one obstacle? Peyton Manning and his cozy home turf.

Pick: Indianapolis Colts

N.Y. Jets at Buffalo

Chad Pennington continues to show he has life left in his arm, even if the Jets came up short against the Patriots. The Bills handled a supposed good Miami team with relative ease. Both teams are 1-1 and have the talent to make a playoff run. A 2-1 start would help them in that direction. The game will be close, with one team stepping it up for the win.

Pick: Buffalo Bills

Tennessee at Miami

The Dolphins looked good last year. Then they traded for Daunte Culpepper. Now they look bad. The Titans are just bad. Period. If the Dolphins lose this game, they do not deserve to win the rest of the season.

Lock Pick of the Week: Miami Dolphins


Washington at Houston

This match up is basically the same as above, with a few changes. The Redskins were good last year, now they have a 500-page playbook and look bad. The Texans are just bad. Period. If the Redskins cannot win this game, they should burn the playbook.

Pick: Washington Redskins

Baltimore at Cleveland

Steve McNair gives the Ravens a viable offense. The defense is aging, but it is hard to tell from the way they are stifling their opponents. The Browns should not be as bad they look, but they are another team struggling with their offense play calling. Charlie Frye will do his best to keep the Browns in the game, but with little protection, he will spend just as much time running for his life.

Pick: Baltimore Ravens

N.Y. Giants at Seattle

This has the makings of a big game. Eli Manning brought the Giants out of 0-2 start with a 17-point comeback against the Eagles. The Seahawks have been winning, but they are not playing to their ability. If their new weapon, Deion Branch, has figured out the offense in time, it should be enough to hold off Eli and company.

Pick: Seattle Seahawks

Philadelphia at San Francisco

One team embarrassed themselves last week, and the other grew up a little bit. The Eagles will need to rebound, and they will have to do it on the road. Can Alex Smith continue his improved play? If he does, the 49ers steal a win. But that is a big “if.”

Pick: Philadelphia Eagles

St. Louis at Arizona

Which of these teams looked worse last week after winning week one? At least the Cardinals lost to a top tier team. The Rams had scored one touchdown in two weeks. Fantasy owners of Marc Bulger, Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce are mad. I am one of those people. So guess who I am picking to lose.

Pick: Arizona Cardinals

Denver at New England

This game is a reach match of last year’s AFC Divisional playoff. It has the makings of a great game. Only problem is Denver’s offense is non-existent, and the Patriots are great on capitalizing on other team’s weaknesses. This one could be ugly.

Pick: New England Patriots

Atlanta at New Orleans

One could argue over which team was less likely to start off the season 2-0. The bottom line is they both are, and at least early on, are giving their fans some hope for the season. Which team is for real? This one is easy. The team that has beaten two of last year’s playoff teams, and the team that has is redefining how to run the football.

Lock Pick of the Week: Atlanta Falcons

Don't like my advice? Want some other points of view? Then check these sites out.
ESPN Experts' Picks
Sunshine Forecast Free Weekly Picks

Power Rankings after Week 2

Pittsburg falls to Jacksonville and with that brings a new king of the mountain. For the most part, the games went as expected, but some surprise teams are emerging. The season is still early, but successful teams have to start here to be at the top in the end.
There are some teams, namely the Panthers, Redskins, Buccaneers and Chiefs, that need to start playing better. Otherwise, their playoff chances will be gone before the end of the month.

1. Chicago Bears – (2-0, Last Week: 2) Rex Grossman, at least for one more week, looks like the first round draft pick the Bears envisioned when they drafted him. The defense has only surrendered seven points in two games. The team is almost too good to be true.

2. Cincinnati Bengals – (2-0, Last Week: 3) Steamrolling the Browns isn’t anything to gloat about, but the offense looks unstoppable and Carson Palmer looks pretty darn good for not being 100%. As long as Chad Johnson isn’t seriously hurt, expect the Bengals to continue their dominance against the Steelers next week.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars – (2-0, Last Week: 4) The Jags add another notch to their belt as they shut out the defending Super Bowl champs. The defense is stout, and offense can do enough to win. Dallas down, Pittsburgh down, can they follow it up with taking down Indianapolis?

4. Seattle Seahawks – (2-0, Last Week: 5) Crushing the Arizona Cardinals is a bit more impressive than squeaking by the Lions, but they still don’t look like last season’s Super Bowl team. If they do not wake up for the Giants next week, they find themselves on the wrong side of victory.

5. San Diego Chargers – (2-0, Last Week: 6) The Chargers have now beaten two semi-pro teams in Oakland and Tennessee. They certainly look impressive, but they need a real challenge. This week should provide a tougher opponent than the Raiders or Titans – a bye.

6. Indianapolis Colts – (2-0, Last Week: 7) Peyton looked bad in week one, but made up for it and then some in week two. Scoring a wrong amount of points in my fantasy league, he made the Texans look like, well, the Texans. Let’s see what they do against the much underrated (but not by me) Jaguars.

7. Pittsburgh Steelers – (1-1, Last Week: 1) Normally I would not drop the top team this low when losing to another top five team, but the Steelers were shut out. The offense looked horrible. Where was Charlie Batch? The defense played their hearts out, and will their hands full again next week against the Bengals.

8. Baltimore Ravens – (2-0, Last Week: 8) No change here because the teams above them won and they haven’t beaten anyone yet. The defense will be there all year, but will the offense be there when they face a real opponent?

9. Minnesota Vikings – (2-0, Last Week: 9) Panthers who? The team just wins. Sure, they have a couple of 3-point squeakers, but a win is a win. The real rest comes this week, where they face the almighty Bears. They win, the NFC North is theres.

10. Atlanta Falcons – (2-0, Last Week: 9) Run. Run. Run. That is what the Falcons love to do – and they do it well. Warrick Dunn and Vick have led the way to nearly 600 yards on the ground in two games. Michael Vick is finally being Michael Vick. Big question – will it continue?

11. New England Patriots – (2-0, Last Week: 9) Something is not right with the Patriots. Yes, they are winning, but barely. Tom Brady needs a receiver to step it up. The defense will keep the team rolling until then.

12. Dallas Cowboys – (1-1, Last Week: 18) The Cowboys looked much better in week two, and TO was not even a factor. He will miss at least one game with a broken finger, but he will not be missed since week four’s opponent is Tennessee.

13. Buffalo Bills – (1-1, Last Week: 17) Maybe that near win over the Patriots in week one was not a fluke. Maybe the Dolphins are not that good. But since everyone else above them lost, they get a nice bump in the ranks.

14. Denver Broncos – (1-1, Last Week: 16) What is wrong with the Broncos? They squeak out a win against a broken Chiefs team, with little to no offense once again. Jake Plummer better remember to throw sooner rather than later.

15. New York Giants – (1-1, Last Week: 20) The Giants do not deserve this kind of bump. They got lucky and caught the Eagles packing it in too early. Now can they catch the Seahawks off guard as well?

16. Philadelphia Eagles – (1-1, Last Week: 15) For three quarters everything was looking great. Then everything went to hell. Just a small slip, or a sign of the season to come? Until that is determined, they stay middle of the road.

17. Arizona Cardinals – (1-1, Last Week: 14) Oops. Maybe they are not playoff ready yet. I wonder if the fans are calling for Matt Lienhart yet. Win or lose, next will be fun as they go to St. Louis and the passing parades will commence.

18. New York Jets – (1-1, Last Week: 21) Pennington brought them back, and for that heart, they get a boost even with the loss to the Patriots. This team may not make the playoffs, but at least they look like they will be competitive every week.

19. Carolina Panthers – (0-2, Last Week: 15) Overrated? Maybe, as they start off the season with two losses. They may have been against good teams, but they are supposed to be better than this. Lose to Tampa Bay next week, and you can tell the fat lady to warm up.

20. New Orleans Saints – (2-0, Last week: 23) This start will be the highlight of their season. If they stop the rushing duo of Vick and Dunn next week, then maybe they will be something worth talking about.

21. San Francisco 49ers – (1-1, Last Week: 25) Well that heart talked about last week turned into a win the very next week. They shut down a talented Ram offense, and Alex Smith looks much improved from last season.

22. St. Louis Rams – (1-1, Last Week: 19) After beating Denver last week, they fall to the 49ers. Have to love their inconsistency. What happened to the greatest show on turf? I'll take a quasi-version at this point.

23. Miami Dolphins – (0-2, Last Week: 13) What is the Dolphins problem? My first guess is Daunte Culpepper. The Vikings improved after he went down for the season last year, and now the Dolphins are failing with him at the helm. Maybe Sage Rosenfels was not that bad after all.

24. Kansas City Chiefs – (0-2, Last Week: 26) It’s all crap from here on out. The Chiefs defense surprising stepped up. Boy do they miss Trent Green already.

25. Green Bay Packers – (0-2, Last Week: 31) Brett Favre proves he still has “it.” Too bad he doesn’t have a team. A valiant effort, but they come up just short.

26. Washington Redskins – (0-2, Last Week: 22) Maybe a 500-page playbook isn’t the best idea. Take a lesson from Madden players Joe Gibbs. Pick 10 plays, and run
them over and over to the point of monotony.

27. Houston Texans – (0-2, Last Week: 29) David Carr at least had himself a good game throwing three touchdown passes, but the Colts bashed the Texans defense in. Mario Williams had two, yes count them, two tackles in the game.

28. Cleveland Browns – (0-2, Last Week: 30) Well, they played better than last week - if you call a 34-17 shellacking by the Bengals better. The big question is why Kellen Winslow and Rueben Droughns are not getting the ball more.

29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – (0-2, Last Week: 27) Well at least the defense played tough. And hey, they got a field goal this week! Maybe next week, they can try for a touchdown!

30. Tennessee Titans – (0-2, Last Week: 28) They are going to give Kerry Collins another chance at quarterback? Why bother. Start Vince Young now, and let him get the snot kicked out of him.

31. Detroit Lions – (0-2, Last Week: 24) Roy Williams made a guarantee. I made a guarantee. After a 34-7 mauling by the Bears, guess whose guarantee stood? By virtue of being dumb and arrogant, the Lions fall to almost to the cellar.

32. Oakland Raiders – (0-2, Last Week: 32) There is no displacing the Raiders. Aaron Brooks gave Andrew Walter an “opportunity” this week – to be killed when he got “injured.” I wonder if Walter will get “injured” next week to give someone else an “opportunity” at quarterbacking this “team.”

2006 NFL Week 2 Match-Up Picks

Last Week's Record: 10-6
Season Record: 10-6
Locks of the Week: 1-0

A few surprises after week one. Chicago winning was a given, but Rex Grossman looked like a good quarterback? Carolina and Dallas forgot to show up for week one, and Reggie Bush still barely understands the concept of losing. And 11 visiting teams win… that might be the biggest shocker of them all.

Through all that, I went 10-6. I forgot to list New England vs Buffalo last week, but come on, who in their right mind chooses Buffalo? Though to their credit, they almost pulled off the win. Well, here are this week’s picks.

Buffalo at Miami

The Bills looked surprisingly good against New England in Week 1 – for one half anyway. Then they played like the Bills have in recent years. Tease their fans with signs of greatness, and then blow it. Miami is coming off a loss against the Super Bowl Champions. Daunte Culpepper should be more comfortable this week, and the Dolphins are not going to start off 0-2 under Coach Nick Saban.

Pick: Miami Dolphins

Carolina at Minnesota

These two teams cost me a couple of games last week. The Panthers underachieved, where as Minnesota won a tough game that they were capable of pulling out. All logic says that the Panthers win this game, but can the faceless Vikings do it again? The game will be close, and seeing as 11 visiting teams out of 16 will not win again this week, the Vikings get the nod and doubts start to creep into Pantherville.

Pick: Minnesota Vikings

Cleveland at Cincinnati

Carson Palmer looks like a man ready to take his team on a Super Bowl run. The Browns look like a team that don’t want to win a game all year. The Bengals will win this game, the only question is by how much. If the Browns play to their ability, the game will be close. If they don’t, then the will be compared to the Packers and Raiders of last week.

Pick: Cincinnati Bengals

Detroit at Chicago

Two great defenses at it. Will 15 points total be scored in this game? Probably, but the defenses on both sides might be the ones doing the scoring. The Lions’ defense is capable of helping them pull off the upset, but this is in Soldier Field. Rex Grossman might be the answer – if he can stay healthy. And the Bears running game looks better than the Lions’. Oh, and Roy Williams guarantees victory after losing week 1? Well, then I'll make this a guarantee too.

Lock Pick of the Week: Chicago Bears

Houston at Indianpolis

This game shouldn’t count as a victory for the Colts. It is just not fair. I am not even going to go into details, besides that Indy wins by at least 14. Mario Williams or Reggie Bush? Seems like such an easy answer – but what do a couple of million people know?

Pick: Indianapolis

New Orleans at Green Bay

This is not going to be one of those games that is going to be highly watched on Sunday Ticket. The lowly Saints versus the even more lowly Packers. As much as I hate to see Brett Favre suffer, he asked for this when he decided to come back and play. Drew Brees and Favre are both good quarterbacks, but at least Brees has Joe Horn, Reggie Bush, and the Duece to back him up.

Pick: New Orleans Saints

N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia

Are the Eagles that good? Well, probably not, but everyone looks good against Houston. Are the Giants any good? Yes, and this should provide for one of the better games of the week. Eli Manning looked better than his brother last week, and should have come away with the win. Peyton threw about four interceptions that were dropped by the Giant defense. Donovan McNabb won’t make those same mistakes, and with his new pal Donte’ Stallworth, the Eagles will edge out a win.

Pick: Philadelphia Eagles

Oakland at Baltimore

Rather than ask the question of who will win this game, there are better, tougher questions to ask. How many sacks will the Raven defense get? How many interceptions will the Raven defense pick-off? How many quarterbacks will the Raiders use in this game alone? How many times will Randy Moss wish he was on another team? All of these questions will be answered Sunday – stay tuned!

Pick: Baltimore Ravens

Tampa Bay at Atlanta

Speaking of teams that looked horrible last week, how about those Buccaneers? Chris Simms looked like a rookie in his first career start. Sure, the Raven defense is top notch, but zero points? Coach John Gruden will surely have his team playing better this week, but the Falcons have two things the Bucs don’t – momentum and Michael Vick. The game will be close, but Vick will find a way.

Pick: Atlanta Falcons

Arizona at Seattle

This game could be interesting. The Cardinals could score 30 points, even on a pretty solid Seahawk defense. But the Seahawks are the NFC defending champions. They wouldn’t possibly let the Cardinals come into their place and steal a win, would they? Shaun Alexander looked like the Madden Curse got him for at least one week. If that continues, then maybe the Cardinals have a chance. This game will be a nail biter, but in the end, the right team comes out on top.

Second Lock Pick of the Week: Seattle Seahawks

St. Louis at San Francisco

I’m sure if you asked any of the Rams players if they would have expected to start off the season 2-0, they would have been lying if they thought there was a good chance. But after the upset win over Denver last week, it should be an easy task now with the 49ers as their opponent. Sure, San Fran scored 24 last week, but that was against the woeful Cardinal defense. The Rams run and throw all over the 49ers in an easy win.

Pick: St. Louis Rams

Kansas City and Denver

No Trent Green? No offensive line? That basically means no hope. Not to mention Denver is bitter after losing their season opener to St. Louis. This game may not be pretty. And for you fantasy owners out there, hope that Larry Johnson gets some receptions out of the backfield this week, otherwise, he won’t likely top 100 yards on the ground.

Pick: Denver Broncos

New England at N.Y. Jets

Yeah, yeah, Chad Pennington looked good last week. Yes, the New England Patriots looked very beatable last week. But the Deion Branch situation is over, and the Patriots are still the Patriots until further notice. The game will be close, but Bill Belichick will find a way to lead his team to victory. Oh and that Brady fellow will help too.

Pick: New England Patriots

Tennessee at San Diego

Can the Charger defense repeat their performance from last week? Will the Titans use three different quarterbacks in the same game? Another game that should just be a gimmie win so no one gets hurt. I won’t be tuning in, and Titan fans shouldn’t bother to either.

Pick: San Diego Chargers

Washington at Dallas

Dallas looked horrible in week one. Having made them my NFC Super Bowl representative, I was quite disappointed in them. I feel bad for Bill Parcels, who continues to have to answer stupid questions from the media. Being a part of the media, I’m ashamed off all the stupid questions he gets every day. The Cowboys will not start off 0-2. If they do, the Tony Romo talks will never stop. Washington has more talent than they know what to do with.

Pick: Dallas Cowboys

Monday Night

Pittsburgh at Jacksonville

Both teams are looking great. This should make great for a great Monday Night Football game. Big Ben still might not play, but does it matter? Charlie Batch looked better than some first string quarterbacks did last week. The game will go down to the wire, but the Steelers, even in unfriendly confines, will run their way to victory.

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers

Power Rankings after Week 1

Here are my power rankings for the NFL. I didn’t do this week one for two reasons. One, I didn’t think of it. Two, no real games had been played, and I think preseason polls are worthless. So here we go.

1. Pittsburgh Steelers – They are the champs, and they beat a good team in Miami. All that with their backup quarterback.

2. Chicago Bears – They might have only beaten the Packers, but Rex Grossman looked good. And if the Bears have a viable quarterback, do they have a weakness?

3. Cincinnati Bengals – They looked great against a supposedly good Chiefs team. And Palmer still isn’t 100%. As good as people think they are, the team could be better than advertised.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars – They beat a good Dallas team. They have a great quarterback in Leftwitch, and have a solid back up in Garrad. Fear the Jaguars.

5. Seattle Seahawks – Well, they won. They didn’t look good against an average Detroit Lions team, but they won. I guess if you can win on your bad teams, your still a great team.

6. San Deigo Chargers – Making a semi-pro team in Oakland look like fools is a good way to start the season. They have all the weapons in place, but can Phillip Rivers do the job? Time will tell.

7. Indianapolis Colts – The numbers won’t show it, but Peyton looked bad. He should have thrown at least four interceptions against the Giants. But they will win, and they are good. They always are. Just never good enough.

8. Baltimore Ravens – The defense looked excellent, and Steve McNair is a huge upgrade over Kyle Boller. This team may surprise some people.

9. New England Patriots – They crack the top 10 because they are the Patriots. But they had better play better than week one. They almost looked human.

10. Minnesota Vikings – The team isn't flashy or pretty, but they win. They have been doing so ever since Daunte Culpepper wasn’t the quarterback dating back to last season. This might be the most boring potential playoff team ever.

11. Atlanta Falcons – For one week anyway, they looked good. Michael Vick has the intangibles to take this team to the playoffs, but they underachieved last year when they were supposed to go. They beat Tampa, then they are in the right direction.

12. Philadelphia Eagles – They looked like a playoff team again. It’s not that they were bad last year, they just had injuries and an annoying plague on their team. We’ll see if the addition of Donte Stallworth is the answer.

13. Miami Dolphins – A tough loss against the world champs, but they still looked good. Daunte Culpepper will only get better with time. They will bounce back.

14. Arizona Cardinals – They looked good, yes. But who did they face? San Fransisco. Don’t buy those playoff tickets just yet.

15. Carolina Panthers – They have been picked by many to go to or win the Super Bowl. If they play like they did in week one again, that may quickly change.

16. Denver Broncos – They had a bad week. Jake Plummer is a fine quarterback. People need to be quiet and let the team play.

17. Dallas Cowboys – For a team I picked to go to the Super Bowl, they made me look foolish. Drew Bledsoe’s job is safe. Stop Asking. They will bounce back.

18. Buffalo Bills – They looked good for a half against New England. Then they turned into the Bills. They won’t be bad, they won’t be good. They will be just this, average.

19. St. Louis Rams – They caught Denver on a bad day. Good for them. They will probably win this week as well. Momentum could be their best friend.

20. New York Giants – This team is supposed to be good. Eli is supposed to be good. And yet they might start off the season 0-2. Good team… right?

21. New York Jets – One week does not make a season. They beat the Titans, not the Colts. They have to earn their way up the ladder.

22. Washington Redskins – This team has so much talent, but they looked choppy against the Vikings. They were horrible in the preseason. Maybe they should slim down that 500-page playbook.

23. New Orleans Saints – They won a game. Reggie Bush looks like the real deal. But they beat an underachieving Browns team. That doesn’t get you many points on this list.

24. Detroit Lions – Yes, they played a great game against Seattle. But then Roy Williams guaranteed victory against the Bears. That gets you ranked down. Win one game first, then start making guarantees.

25. San Francisco 49ers – They played the Cardinals all the way up to the end. So if nothing else, they showed heart. Let’s hope that heart leads to some victories down the road.

26. Kansas City Chiefs – No offensive line. No Trent Green. No real defense. This team isn’t looking all that good. Maybe that preseason was a foreshadowing of what is to come.

27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Getting shut out by the Ravens? Baltimore’s defense is good, but the Buccaneers should have at least picked up a field goal. They were a playoff team last season. Embarrassing.

28. Tennessee Titans – Is Vince Young going to play one series every week? Talk about screwing up continuity. Either play him or don’t. Don’t half ass it.

29. Cleveland Browns – They lost to New Orleans. At home. Charlie Frye, their quarterback, out rushed their running back Rueben Droughns. They should be ashamed.

30. Houston Texans – So, it’s a good thing they picked Mario Williams for their #1 pick. How many sacks did he get again last week?

31. Green Bay Packers – They looked god awful. At least they have Brett Favre

32. Oakland Raiders – They looked god awful. They don’t have Brett Favre.

NFL 2006 Division Winners and Super Bowl Predictions

More NFL since today is opening day,
Here are my placing for each divion and then playoff winners. Simple Enough? Thought so. Enjoy.

AFC East
1) New England Patriots - Yes, I know, not creative, but realistic
2) Miami Dolphins - Saban is the answer
3) Buffalo Bills - Maybe .500
4) N.Y. Jets - Maybe top 5 pick in the draft

AFC North
1) Pittsburg Steelers - No Tommy Maddux to lose games this year
2) Cincinnati Bengals - Right behind them
3) Baltimore Ravens - Good, but not good enough
4) Cleveland Browns - If only they were in another division

AFC South
1) Indianapolis - With division opponents like they have, how can they not win
2) Jacksonville - A good team that won't make the playoffs
3) Houston - They will be a better team than last year
4) Tennessee - So who will they take with a top 5 pick next year? Another QB I hope.

AFC West
1) Denver - Loads of weapons
2) San Deigo - Rivers cost them the playoffs
3) Kansas City - Just too old, Larry can't carry them the whole way
4) Oakland - Just good enough to win 6 games

2 AFC Wild Card teams - Miami and Cincinnati
Just Missing - San Diego, Jacksonville, Kansas City, Baltimore

NFC East
1) Dallas - As long as TO behaves, they will conquer. If not, they simply divide.
2) Washington - Great defense, better offense, will finish right behind the Cowboys
3) N.Y. Giants - Eli cost them the playoffs
4) Philadelphia - Not as good as people think they are

NFC North
1) Chicago - Who the heck else is there to pick?
2) Minnesota - Well at least they try hard
3) Detroit - Kitna makes them better, but until further notice, they are still the Lions
4) Green Bay - Poor Brett Favre

NFC South
1) Carolina - They are very, very good.
2) Tampa Bay - They are just very good.
3) Atlanta - Well... there good.
4) New Orleans - They have the people to be good, but for some reason, they won't be.

NFC West
1) Seattle - Unless the Madden curse strikes the whole team and not just Alexander
2) Arizona - They won't be a team to be ashamed of anymore
3) St. Louis - There offense will keep them respectable
4) San Fransisco - I can see them getting another #1 draft pick

2 NFC Wild Card Teams - Washington and Arizona
Just Missing - Tampa Bay, N.Y. Giants, Atlanta, Minnesota

AFC Wild Card Weekend
Indianapolis over Miami
Cincinnati over Denver
Bye: Pittsburgh and New England

NFC Wild Card Weekend
Chicago over Arizona
Wasington over Carolina
Bye: Seattle and Dallas

AFC Divisional Weeknd
New England over Indianapolis
Cincinnati over Pittsburgh

NFC Divisional Weekend
Dallas over Washington
Chicago over Seattle

AFC Championship
Cincinnati over New England

NFC Championship
Dallas over Chicago

Super Bowl
Dallas over Cincinnati

Yes, I'm saying that TO does the trick and Parcells retires a champion. Cincinnati would have made the Super Bowl last year if not for Palmer's injury. They will fix that this year.

2006 NFL Week 1 Match-up Picks

Hey there football fans,
It's been awhile since I bothered to post on this darn thing. But it's football season, and I want to prove that I can pick the NFL winners with the best of them. So here is my rundown of Week 1's match-ups.

Thursday
Miami at Pittsburgh - Well the Dolphins were probably the most improved team last year from the beginning of the season to its end, but when you are stuck facing the Super Bowl Champions in your first game, life isn't easy. The Steelers without Ben Roethlisberger won't look much different than usual, as backup quarterback Charlie Batch knows what to do - Call hike, turn around, and hand it to Willie "Fast" Parker. The two defenses will keep this game close, but the Steelers will start their title defense with a victory.
Pick: Pittsburgh

Sunday
Atlanta at Carolina - The hot pick this year is Carolina. And why not, they have a stout defense and now with the addition of Keyshawn Johnson and hopefully a healthy running game; their offense should be a force as well. Atlanta though, has their usual weapon, Michael Vick. This should be his breakout year, whether it’s through his running or with this arm, he will take the Falcons back to the playoffs. This game will be close, and home field advantage will give the edge to the Panthers.
Pick: Carolina

Baltimore at Tampa Bay - Do the Ravens finally have a quarterback that they aren't ashamed of? Apparently, as Steve McNair doesn't look like he is ready to retire just yet. Their defense is great as always, but the defense on the other side of the ball isn't too shoddy either. Chris Simms is still a bit on the inexperienced side, but he and the rest of the Bucs have something on the Ravens - youth. Baltimore is getting to be an old team, and their high hopes of a playoff run won't go as far as they think they will.
Pick: Tampa Bay

Cincinnati at Kansas City - Two high powered offense go at it week one. There should be between 50 to 60 points in this game, as two of the best backs in the NFL, Larry Johnson and Rudi Johnson, try to out duel each other. Trent Green is getting old, and Carson Palmer is not 100% yet. But the Bengals have one thing the Chiefs don't - Chad Johnson.
Pick: Cincinnati

Denver at St. Louis - Two good offenses once again, but Denver actually has some form of a defense. The score in this game combined should surpass 50, but eventually the Broncos Defense will stop the Rams long enough to build a lead. Mike Bell, Tatum Bell, or Alexander Graham Bell will rack up a 100 yards rushing for the Broncos. Does it really matter which of them is back there to do it?
Pick: Denver

New Orleans at Cleveland - Reggie Bush's NFL debut. Other than watching for that, there isn’t much to look forward to. Both teams will be striving for a .500 record for this season and with that hopefully a team identity. Charlie Frye should secure his role as the Brown's long term quarterback, and simply on home field advantage alone, the Browns will win a close one.
Pick: Cleveland

N.Y. Jets at Tennessee - Where as the above teams will strive for .500 records, these two teams will strive to reach 5 wins this year. It's hard to say which team is worse, but I guess that is what this game is for. Chad Pennington will be the first quarterback of many for the Jets, and Billy Volek, is he is still the starter come Sunday, will be the first of many QBs for the Titans. I can't wait to see Vince Young in there - just to prove he can't play at the pro level. Flipping a coin and my pick is...
Pick: N.Y. Jets

Philadelphia at Houston - Do I need to go into detail? Donovan McNabb vs. David Carr. Brain Westbrook vs. who the hell cares. Houston will score some points, and Carr will get sacked at least 4 times. I know that’s not a bold prediction - its just a fact.
MY LOCK PICK OF THE WEEK: Philadelphia

Seattle at Detroit - Another game that won't be close long. The Seahawks have all the weapons in the world, and know how to use them. Detroit has all the weapons in the world, and tend to shoot themselves in the foot. Unless Mike Martz's magic works in Detroit, except the usual 6-10 season out of the Lions. Oh, and if Shaun Alexander goes down with a season ending injury, blame Madden '07 (he's on the cover, look up Madden Curse)
Pick: Seattle

Chicago at Green Bay - Poor Brett Favre. That's about all I have to say. If you have him on your fantasy team, don't start him this week. Interceptions o'plenty will come at the hands of the Chicago defense. Rex Grossman starts this game for the Bears, but don't worry, Brian Griese, Kyle Orton, and Ryan Leaf I'm sure will all get a shot at the job sometime down the road.
Pick: Chicago

Dallas at Jacksonville - Isn't it amazing how TO is healthy for the start of the season? In any case, the man can play. And as long as he keeps his mouth shut and catches the ball, than Dallas can expect to go deep into the playoffs. Jacksonville should be a force to be reckoned with, but the Cowboys will walk away with the win.
Game of the Week Pick: Dallas

San Fransisco at Arizona - Hmm... #1 Passing Offense from last year + The Edge. That can't be good for the 49ers. Just how many points with the Cardinals score against San Fran? Let's say at least 31. The Cardinals break in their new stadium with a bang - and a preview of possibly a playoff contender
Pick: Arizona

Indianapolis vs N.Y. Giants - Peyton vs Eli. Brother against Brother. It's all so.... BORING. Two guys that throw a lot but will never take thier teams to the big game square off in what will be one of the most over hyped games of the year. Peyton and Eli throw the ball all over the place, rack of some yards, give the fans a few laughs, and then Eli will get picked off and sacked by Dwight Freeney and Giants fans will go home upset.
Pick: Indianapolis

Monday Night
Minnesota at Washington - It's amazing how the Vikings look better with Brad Johnson at quarterback than Daunte Culpepper. (It's also amazing how many players named Johnson have been mentioned during these predictions) Minnesota is a solid team, but they lost Nate Burleson and didn't make any significant improvement. Washington SHOULD be firing on all cylinders as Mark Brunnel as a host of wide receivers to throw to now. And oh yeah, there is that guy named Clinton Portis - if he's healthy. He won't need to be this week though, Redskins take it either way.
Pick: Washington

San Diego at Oakland - Phillip Rivers is going to need time to be comfortable as the starting quarterback for the Chargers. So it's a good thing that they are facing Oakland week one. Aaron Brooks, or Mr. Inconsistency, will throw 3 touchdowns and then negate it with 3 interceptions during the game. Randy Moss will complain about not getting the ball enough, and Joey Porter actually won't get the ball enough. LT rushes for 125 and runs right over the Oakland D.
Pick: San Diego

Well that does it for this week, though I'll also have my preseason predictions for the playoffs up momentarily.