MLB 2008 Predictions

Opening Day.

OK, so it is opening day part three, but close enough. This time of year calls for predictions. In 2006 I correctly picked the Cardinals at the beginning of the season, but last year did not go nearly as well. Here is hoping even years are good ones for me.

AL East

1^st: Boston Red Sox (90-95 wins) This is one of the easier decisions concerning the divisions. The Red Sox are clearly the best team in the East. The line-up is potent with David Ortiz and Manny Rameriz. As long as Beckett does not spend an extended period on the disabled list, the Yankees will be left in the dust.

2^nd: New York Yankees (86-91 wins) Remember when you could name all five starting pitchers? The Yankees will score plenty of runs with the All-Star line-up they possess, but they will have to slug their way victory. The best part about this season might be listening to what comes out of Hank Steinbrenner’s mouth.

3^rd: Toronto Blue Jays (84-89 wins) Every year sports writers think the Blue Jays might make the East a three-team race. Every year the Blue Jays have an absurd number of injuries and fall out. Coming out of spring training, this appears to be the case again. If they stay healthy, they contend. But that is a huge if.

4^th: Tampa Bay Rays: (77-82 wins) The Rays have a starting rotation? Almost, with three good starters in Scott Kazmir, Scott Shields and Matt Garza. Their line-up is always capable of scoring runs. The bullpen is a mystery, and they are a young team playing in a veteran division. That should not stop them from making life difficult for contending teams.

5^th: Baltimore Orioles: (58-63 wins) This team is sad. Cal Ripken Jr. could probably make the team at his current age and start third base. They have Brian Roberts (at least for now) and a bunch of youngsters. Long season ahead.

AL Central

1^st: Cleveland Indians (87-92 wins) Continuity is great, and the Indians have it. The Tribe starts the season with virtually the same team that took them to the ALCS last year. This means they know how to play with each other, and if needed they have cash saved up for a mid-season trade. They have the deepest rotation in baseball, with three pitchers starting in AAA who would start on almost any other team.

2^nd: Detroit Tigers (85-90 wins) Batting eighth for the Tigers is Jacque Jones, who hit in the middle of the line-up for the Twins last season. This team will rake in runs all season. As long as their pitching staff can stop the other team from running up the score, this team will win a lot of gamers. Expect Dontrelle Willis’ ERA to be in the 6.00s.

3^rd: Kansas City Royals (74-79 wins) Good news Royals fans. Your team is not going to finish in last place. Unlike the Twins and White Sox, the Royals youngsters actually look promising. Jose Guillen, steroid use aside, will be a nice shot in the offenses’ arm. A .500 season is not out of the question.

4^th: Minnesota Twins (73-78 wins) Francisco Liriano is expected to carry this rotation while coming off of Tommy John surgery. Livan Hernandez, who had a 4.93 ERA last season, is the opening day starter. This teams has a lot of questions, not all of which can be answered with Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau’s bats.

5^th: Chicago White Sox (70-75 wins) This team has a mix of really old and young players. The problem is the old players are over the hill and the young players are raw. The team batting average last season was pitiful (league worst .246) and the pitching was not much better. Will Ozzie Guillen actually be willing to give back money when this team tanks?

AL West

1^st: Seattle Mariners (83-88 wins) I do not love this team. However, they have the best contact hitter in baseball (Ichiro), the most underrated closer (J.J. Putz) and a great 1-2 punch in Erik Bedard and Felix Hernandez. As long as they can stay healthier than the Angels (which appears to be the case) they should squeak by as the division champs.

2^nd: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (82-87 wins) The season has not begun and John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar, the team's top two starters, are both out with injuries. The team has a plethera of proven outfielders, but last time I checked, none of them can pitch. This team will operate like the Tigers with a lot of games where the final score is 10-8. The goal will be to have 10 more often than eight.

3^rd: Oakland Athletics (77-82 wins) Two certainties with this team. The pitching will be above average, and the hitting will be below average. Their split with the Red Sox in their opening series was an early indication of what the team is capable of - .500 baseball. They would be fun to watch expect they do not score runs, which makes boring baseball.

4^th: Texas Rangers (65-70 wins) No pitching, a shaky line-up and a another last place season for the Rangers. General Manager John Hart did wonders in Cleveland, but has not even come close matching that success in Texas. This may be the end for him.

NL East

1^st: Atlanta Braves (84-89 wins) A scary line-up (which includes the pitchers) and a solid rotation. This looks like the Braves of old, and it should play out like that. Make the playoffs, exit first round. That will still be an improvement on the past couple of seasons.

2^nd: Philadelphia Phillies (83-88 wins) The historic comeback made last season was no accident. Solid pitching with a bunch of MVPs in the line-up is an excellent mix. They could steal the division away again, and will provide great entertainment all season.

3^rd: New York Mets (82-87 wins) If this reminds you of someone else’s predictions, (maybe Tim Kurchin’s) I’ll admit I agree with him. This race is tough to call, but two things the Mets lack is youth and health. Usually those are key ingredients to success. Johann Santana may post an ERA under 2.00.

4^th: Washington Nationals (75-80 wins) At least they can say they were in first place for one day. Ryan Zimmerman is the real deal, but we know that. They have an environmentally safe ballpark, the first of its kind, which is nice. Other than that, just hope Chad Cordero gets enough saves to be good for your fantasy team.

5^th: Florida Marlins (60-65 wins) A 10 million dollar payroll. Amazing. Can Hanley Rameriz drive in 500 RBIs? If he can, the team will contend. That might be a bit too much to ask, so lets just hope they average more than 500 fans per home game.

NL Central

1^st: Chicago Cubs (85-90 wins) Is it the Cubs year? No, but with the Central so shaky, they will make the playoffs again. Even though they have a lot of nice pieces, they do not look like a championship team. If Derek Lee can repeat his 2005 performance, maybe they have a chance. Then again, they are the Cubs.

2^nd: Milwaukee Brewers (83-88 wins) This team could be a huge letdown after the last season's surprise. Ben Sheets needs to stay healthy for an entire year for them to have a chance. I do not see it happening. They may fall hard, or rise to the top. Unpredictable is usually not a good thing.

3^rd: Houston Astros (79-84 wins) Why the high placing? Look at the rest of the Central. Their pitching could be good, and the offense might score runs, or the whole team might go to heck in a hand basket. Much like the Brewers. At least you can count on Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt.

4^th: Cincinnati Reds (77-82 wins) Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo are possibly the best one-two combination in the division. Past that, there is a lot of potential to the team. Some people say this team is a dark horse, but I do not see it. Maybe they will trade Ken Griffey Jr. to a contender so he can try and win a ring.

5^th: St. Louis Cardinals (76-81 wins) Did this team win the World Series two years ago? They haven’t fallen off the face of the planet like the Miami Heat in the NBA, but they are a shell of their former self. Albert Pujols cannot be counted on, as he is a twist away from season-ending elbow surgery.

6^th: Pittsburgh Pirates (59-64 wins) I am making a bold prediction here – the Pirates will have yet another losing season. The team has Jason Bay and… a lot of future losses ahead. If only they could infect the Steelers with their horridness.

NL West

1^st: Colorado Rockies (89-94 wins) Will this team win 22 of 23 games again and play in the World Series? Maybe not, but that does not stop them from winning the West. The line-up is great from top to bottom, and the pitching is the best in the history of the Rockies. The defense is not too shabby either.

2^nd: San Diego Padres (88-93 wins) Pitching is a wonderful thing, and the Padres have plenty. As long as Jake Peavy is not pitching in the playoffs, he is lights out. They might not have the best offense, but they allow so few runs it does not matter. Chris Young proved as long as you are not pitching for the Rangers, you can pitch well.

3^rd: Arizona Diamondbacks (87-92 wins) If this team was in the NL Central, they would run away with the division. If Randy Johnson stays healthy and can dominate at some level, this team could take this division. But like with Ben Sheets and Roy Halladay of the Blue Jays, the chances of that are slim.

4^th: Los Angeles Dodgers (80-85 wins) Is there something infecting Los Angeles? Like the Angels, the injury bug has bitten this team, only for the Dodgers it is their infield. Lack of a good farm system might make for a rough start they will not recover from. At least Joe Torre does not have to deal with George anymore.

5^th: San Francisco Giants (65-70 wins) The best part about the Giants is that steroid king Barry Bonds is no longer on the team. Otherwise things look grim. I hear I am up for the starting third base job, I will keep people updated on that.

AL Wildcard: Detroit Tigers because of the 1927 Yankee replica offense

NL Wildcard: San Diego Padres with one of the best rotations in baseball

World Series Prediction: Cleveland Indians over the Colorado Rockies. The torment Cleveland fans have endured since 1964 without a major sports championship ends with a bang.

Cleveland Sports in General

Oh Cleveland Sports.

Gotta love them. Or something like that. I had this nice blog in my head about how the Cavs were smart not to make any trades which all the craziness that has occurred in the NBA the last month.

Then I got back from my run and saw what happened.

The Cavs made a trade to make a trade. Why? Is General Manager Danny Ferry trying to destroy the chemistry of the team? I mean shipping out six players, the main ones being Larry Huges, Donyell Marshell and Ira Newble, for four new guy is a good idea? Especially Ben Wallace, who is on the older side, Delonte West, who is another shooting guard, Joe Smith, forward, and Wally Szczerbiak, who at least has a fun name to say, but not spell.

The Cavs got four new players - and zero point guards! What? Why?! Why bother is more like it. Basically they threw in the towel for the season, though the Eastern Conference can basically be won with Lebron James and any four random people. This was no good though. Team chemistry matters for a reason. We'll see why soon enough.

On the plus side, the Cleveland Browns signed Jamal Lewis to a three-year deal today. Sure, he probably won't last three years and we'll have to cut him, but with the offensive line we have (who knew I'd ever compliment that aspect of the Browns) even a slow dump truck like Lewis should get 1,000 yards the next couple of seasons. This should at least mean they won't waste that second round pick on a back. Not needed. Draft defensive lineman until they begin to weigh the airplane down on the way to Cleveland. It's what we need.

Finally, for the ugly. C.C. Sabathia cut off contract talks last Friday. Looks like this is the last season we will enjoy having him here in Cleveland. Just as long as we don't trade him. People forget, but we get draft picks based on the value of a free agent if they sign with someone else. He should be worth a first round pick and then some. Fans might not be happy with that, but the Indians have a pretty good recent history of drafting quality first round talent.

I really wish the Cavs would take a hint from the Indians and try to keep a core around Lebron. The fact that the Indians have had basically the same team going into the fourth season in a row is usually a recipe for success.

But who knows, basketball is a strange sport sometimes.

My First Marathon Experience

I wrote this over a month ago, but figured I'd post it here for the fun of it since it relates to a real sport where you don't get timeouts and subs. Enjoy.

Running a marathon is a goal some people make for themselves in their lifetime.

The distance, 26.2 miles, is no easy task.

But for someone like me, who ran competitively in high school and college, it is not as daunting.

So when I decided I would run the Road Runner Akron Marathon this past spring, the goal was not to finish.

The goal was to race – no matter how much it might hurt.

Summer Training

The only way I know how to train is hard. The summer was spent running between 80 and 115 miles a week. This meant running twice a day multiple times a week, drinking tons of water and Gatorade, and becoming one with that wonderful heat.

Group runs are vital. I met with friends almost every day, and if nothing else I have a younger brother Thomas who runs for Ohio Northern University to join me when no one else was around.

My crowning achievement was running 983 miles in a 10-week span. That’s almost 100 a week, which in of itself was quite an accomplishment.

As a whole for the year, I’ve run close to 2,600 miles. In comparison, my little Saturn which has spent most of this year in the shop hasn’t logged that many miles.

The Big Day

I slept pretty well the night before.

It helped when two weeks prior to the race, I came down with a bad cold. For 10 days I felt like a ton of bricks hit me and the dump truck ran me over on the way to clean up the mess. I did recover a few days prior, just in time for the race.

So after being sick, there really wasn’t anything left to worry about.

Warming up before the race was different. I had develop this routine in college. I ran, then stretched, then ran some more.

I couldn’t do that before the marathon. 26.2 miles is far enough. Running more than that beforehand is only going to tire you out.

Besides five minutes to basically loosen up, I just sat there, stretched, and talked to my girlfriend Nicole to pass the time. Unlike waiting in line for the Wii for five hours, she was a lot more supportive and did not consider me nearly as crazy for doing this.

She was worried about me, naturally, in part because she had the same sickness I had and had it first. She might have given it to me, but hey it happens. She was there for me when I needed her, and in the end that is all that matters.

You Can Pass Me, For Now

College racing is simple. Run hard and beat as many people as you can right from the start.

The Akron Marathon does not work that way. Being a big relay race as well, some of the people at the line are not running 26.2 miles. They are running around six miles. So when the bell went off, I actually had to restrain myself as people not nearly in as good of shape as me went by me.

It felt like those times on the highway when I am in my mustang but there is a police car right in front of me. Not that I would ever speed or anything.

The goal was to average 6:30 miles, which would get me to a 2:50.00 marathon. It helped to have one of my buddies, Ryan Marr, with me to start since he was looking to go a similar time.

We chatted – we had almost three hours to kill after all – and did our best to stay toward our target goal. Sure enough, when we hit three miles, we were at 19:30.

Perfect pace.

Challenge #1

I found myself in a pack of four six miles into the race. Ahead of us was another pack running the full marathon. One of them was a female, which led to one guy asking, “Who is that?”

“2:45,” was the response, referring to a time she previous ran. I found out later her name was Melissa Rittenhouse, but the following response ate me up inside.

“She is going to kick all our butts, that’s for sure.”

I thought in my head, well you can let her beat you, but she isn’t going to beat me. This isn’t a sexist thing or anything, OK maybe a little, but I do not like being told I cannot beat someone. So a new goal at that moment became beat “2:45.”

New Running Partner

Ryan is a nice guy and all, but it was not his day and he wasn’t going to keep up with me long term. Right around the time he started to fall back, I had another training buddy in waiting.

John Nakel, who ran the first 10 kilometers on a relay team, agreed to run to mile 11 with me to keep me on pace. He did better than that, as I started to pick up the pace and close the gap on the group that included “2:45.”

By the time John veered off at the Inventors Hall of Fame, he helped me through 10 miles in 65:05 – only five seconds from goal pace.

He told me to catch the group and I would be sailing smooth.

Catch them I would.

Daring Move

When your goal is to run 6:30 pace, it is best not to stray from the time one way or another. But I had to make a move, so I used one of the biggest downhill miles of the race to the fullest. I dropped a 6:08 and caught the group on the Tow Path.

Risky, yes, but the reward was worth it, as I found out the next day.

When I caught this group, I found in it another pacer. Justin Dickman, a runner from Youngstown State, was helping another person in there pace until the 20-mile mark.

This was another stretch I’ve run a million times being basically in my backyard. Familiarity feels good, especially when you get to the halfway point of the race in 1:24.26 – now ahead of my target goal.

Challenge #2

When I caught that group, the six of us were all men. Rittenhouse, the top female, was about 20 seconds back of us but still in striking distance. These guys were all confident enough they would run 2:50, so at the time it seemed like a good group.

But around mile 15, I received a comment from one of them that again lit a fire inside.

“Be smart, young pup.”

Being the only “virgin” marathoner in the group, I know he was referring to me possibly blowing up because I wasn’t prepared.

Sorry buddy, not going to happen.

So when we left the Tow Path and started the climb though Sand Run, the toughest four miles of the race, I gained a third goal – drop this group like a bad habit.

Secret Weapon

Sand Run is tough. Four miles basically all up hill. Again, I knew this ahead of time – and planned ahead.

I asked my buddy Mike Seymour, who is within minutes of qualifying for the Olympic Trails in the marathon, to meet up with me at Sand Run.

Sure enough, when Dickman was struggling to keep us on pace halfway up Sand Run, there was Seymour to the rescue.

Inside five minutes of him joining our group, our group became just two guys – Seymour and me.

We charged up the hill, made a left and put a surge on that pack that would not be countered. As hard as it is to pick up the pace when you are 19 miles into a race, it’s easy when you got a great motivator like Seymour running beside you.

He saw people ahead of me and reminded me that I am stronger than all of them. My confidence soared as we picked off three more marathoners in the next three milers.

Of course, Seymour could only run so far, and at mile 22, for the first time all race, I was going to be by myself.

Do or Die

The first mile by myself also happened to be the last mile with a bad uphill. I would fall asleep – or the soreness in my quadriceps that started 15 miles ago took its toll – and I ran my slowest mile of 6:53.

I could have slowed down and ran easy the rest of the way.

But that wouldn’t be me.

I swore at myself a bit, and picked it back up through Stan Hywet. It helps when you have runners slowing down in front of you, as I passed two more guys before reaching Market Street.

I was tired. I was a little light-headed. But I was back on pace.

The Final Stretch

If you haven’t noticed, I haven’t mentioned anyone passing me since the beginning. That’s because after mile eight or so, I was the one doing all the passing.

There was one exception, and it occurred right around the time I reached Market Street.

A female passed me.

For a second, I thought it was Rittenhouse, until I looked at her bib and noticed she was on a 5-person relay.

OK, so a college grad running one-seventh the distance I am passes me. I can live with that, but she did help me speed up more as I tried to keep her close.

As I closed in on the final mile, my stride was getting shorter and my pace was slowing again. On cue, Seymour was back. Mr. Motivator got me going again, and as we turned down Main Street, I was almost delirious but running fast.

Seymour’s final words were to kick, and I did just that. I passed a final group of half marathoners and can faintly remember my buddy and race director Dave Hunter saying my name over the PA system as I crossed the finish line.

2:51.01.

One minute off my goal pace, but I beat the woman, I beat the group, and I beat the hills.

Mission accomplished.

Painful, but Worth it

I took about eight steps after the finish line. My quads were on fire and my legs were done. Two guys helped me to the medical tent.

On the way I received my medal. At the time I swore it weighed 40 pounds.

The next 15 minutes were spent laying on a cot with ice strapped to my legs and waiting for my lungs to start taking in air again.

Sounds like a picnic, doesn’t it?

As bad as it was – and it was bad – I had my girlfriend there to rescue. She was my crutch the rest of the day, as I found walking almost impossible.

The one major pick me up was when I checked the results on a laptop there and saw where I finished.

I was 25^th overall, and third in my age group.

Not too bad for my first marathon.

And remember when I said Rittenhouse was only 20 seconds behind our group halfway through the race? Well she caught and passed every one of those guys, finishing 26^th about two minutes behind me.

Best Wake Up Ever

I won’t lie. I hurt. Bad.

My legs were a wreck and my arm is all cut up from my jersey rubbing against it. I felt like an 80-year-old man, and on Sunday morning I did not want to get out of bed.

Nicole brought me the Akron Beacon Journal, since we knew they would have a section on the marathon. She looked at it first, then handed it to me.

I looked at the front page, and about cried with joy right there. There was a photo of six runners on the Tow Path. They were not named in the caption because they were shadowy, almost silhouette-like.

But I knew who they were - namely the guy in the center with the black cap and red jersey.

It was me.

That surge I made, dropping the 6:08 to catch that group, paid off with a reward better than I could have known at the time. By leading the group through the Tow Path I set myself to be the center piece of Ken Love’s picture, and the front page of the paper.

So I’m famous – almost.

I know it was me, and now you do too.

I am supposed to get a prize of some kind for third place in my age group in the mail, but that picture will be the ultimate memory of my inaugural marathon.

Try It, You Might Like It

As I write this four days later, I still struggle to stand up, sit down, go up and down stairs, and just in general be mobile.

But don’t let that deter you from trying to run a marathon. From what other people have told me, if you run it slower, it apparently doesn’t hurt as bad.

And no matter how fast you do it, the sense of accomplishment outweighs any pain you may have short term.

My only suggestion is that if you are going to do it, don’t be afraid to push yourself to running a little faster than you think you can.

A little more pain is worth the reward.

Why the Clevlend Browns Stink

The Browns stink.

That sums up my entire rant in one sentence.

The browns stink.

It’s not just the quarterback, or the offensive line, or the coaching. They all stink.

Probably for the best, I did not see the game live. I watched it on DVR later. That way I could fast forward to the good parts.

In other words, I only had to watch about five minutes of the game. Not much you have to watch when the score is Pittsburgh 34, Cleveland 7.

I listened to the post-game show on the radio on my ride to work, and everyone was complaining about the quarterbacks. That is all stupid, moronic Browns fans do. They complain about the quarterbacks.

Never mind the fact that on the fourth play from scrimmage – the punt – they committed four penalties on the play. FOUR. None of them by the quarterback. That is a joke. You would not see that in a high school game. Check that, you would not see that in a youth football game.

The Browns do not deserve to play in the NFL. They haven’t earned the right since 2002 when they snuck into the playoffs. Sure, they might win a game or two a year, but they are now just one of those teams you can count out of the playoff hunt before the season even begins.

Maybe they should ask to play Michigan. That way one of the teams can win a game this season. Then again, if they play NFL rules, the teams are so equally bad they may end in a tie and neither team goes home happy.

Before the game began, Browns coach Romeo Crennel said that its too bad they can not start the season playing some team they could beat 73-10. No Mr. Crennel, you can’t. You know why? You ARE the team that the rest of the league plays in hopes to crush 73-10.

Anyone that has talked to me knows that I am a big Charlie Frye guy. I covered him during his senior season at Akron, and could see that he has the tools to be an NFL quarterback. The problem is he isn’t on a NFL team. And he doesn’t have NFL fans backing him. He has whiny babies that want a new quarterback every season unless that quarterback goes 16-0.

I am not going to pretend that he played well on Sunday. He didn’t. Neither did Derek Anderson. But if Brady Quinn is named the starter in week three or four – and he will be – the process of destroying his career will begin right then and there.

Want to see Quinn succeed? Then sit him for the entire year, no matter what. They did that in Cincinnati, forcing Carson Palmer to learn the offense from the bench. Then, next season, they named him the starter and made there be no question about it.

That is what the Browns should do. But there is no one on the coaching staff smart enough to think of such a simple concept.

I hope whoever takes over this team next year – anyone will be an upgrade over Romeo Crennel – picks a quarterback as soon as possible so the rest of the team does not have to wonder who their leader is going to be. Of course, with the recent history of the Browns, the head coach will be another first time head coach, so expect more bad play and play calling

The concept of hiring an experienced coach is apparently null and void to the Browns higher ups.

I am going to call it right now. The Browns will be drafting another quarterback in either 2009 or 2010. Why? Because Browns’ fans will be complaining that Quinn can not do the job probably after five or six losses.

They are dumb like that.

As for this season, if they go 2-14, it’s overachieving. This team is one, maybe two steps above the 1999 team. Those upgrades are Kellen Winslow Jr. and Steve Heiden. And since there is no quarterback to get them the ball, they will go virtually unnoticed by the rest of the league once again.

Troy Smith not the answer for the Cleveland Browns

Troy Smith’s name comes up a lot in Ohio, but not just when talking about the Buckeyes.

Many Cleveland Brown’s fans want the team to waste, yes waste, their number one pick on Smith. Why? So the Browns offensive line can destroy another promising career? Last night was proof that Smith was not the answer.

Yes, I know it was the Buckeye’s only loss of the season, and really the only game that Smith looked bad. But it was the reasons he looked bad that makes him not the answer. The Florida Gator defense put pressure on Smith all night, making the Buckeye offensive line look bad. In other words, he had no protection. And what did Smith, a more mobile quarterback than Charlie Frye, do under that pressure?

He played bad, very bad.

And he was getting hit by basically college-sized defensive players. What do you think people like Ray Lewis and Troy Polamalu would do to him? He would be injured, just like every other Brown’s quarterback who has played since their return in 1999. Not to mention Smith is undersized for a NFL-quarterback. Smaller frame means a higher chance of injury.

This is not to say Smith cannot excel. Drew Brees, with a similar frame, has excelled. But he has a great offensive line. Smith will need a good line to protect him if he wants to do well at quarterback. My guess is, though, he will be wide receiver when its all said and done.

On top of all that, JaMarcus Russell and Brady Quinn are both better quarterbacks. The Browns also need an offensive lineman over anything else, but if Adrian Peterson is there when they go to pick with the third or fourth pick, I think they should take him. If he isn’t there, go offensive line for sure.

I hope that last night quiets some of the Troy Smith for Brown’s quarterback talk. Charlie Frye is fully capable of succeeding at the position – as long as he gets some protection, and a real offensive coordinator. Otherwise the Russian Rolette of Brown’s starting quarterbacks will continue forever.

NFL Quarterbacks need time, not quick judgment

NFL Quarterbacks receive judgment far too quickly.

Some are called great after having one big win. Some are deemed useless if they throw a few interceptions in a single game.

Is it fair? No, not really. But we do it anyway, all the time.

When Alex Smith was drafted number one overall to the San Francisco 49ers, I did not think he had any chance of being successful. Maybe it was the name, maybe it was coming from a weak conference, or maybe it was because he looks like a pretty boy.

Whatever the case, I disregard him and expected the 49ers to have to draft another quarterback within three years.

In his rookie season, he threw one touchdown – and 11 interceptions. He completed less than 51 percent of his passes. And most importantly, at least in my book, he helped the 49ers to a 4-12 season, giving them the sixth overall pick in this year’s draft.

Basically, he had a rookie season he would love to forget.

This year, however, he has improved basically across the board. After Thursday night’s upset win over Seattle, the 49ers are sitting at 6-8. Smith has thrown 15 touchdowns versus 14 interceptions. Not a great ratio, but compared to last season, it is going in the right direction.

His completion percentage is creepy toward the 60 percent mark. And he has even chipped in a couple of rushing touchdowns, including a 18-yard gallop tonight.

So what does all this mean? That quarterbacks need time to develop.

Smith is no where near done developing. But by playing every game this year, he is gaining valuable experience to make a run at the division title in a weak NFC West conference next season. A consistent running game also helps, as running back Frank Gore is having a breakout year.

Will Smith be the next Joe Montana or Steve Young? Probably not, but he might be able to string together a several good seasons like Jeff Garcia did in his 49er days.

This also goes for other young quarterbacks. The first one that comes to mind is my hometown team, the Cleveland Browns’ Charlie Frye. He is battling a wrist injury right now, but he has had his ups and downs all season and fans and some media personnel are already calling for the backup Derek Anderson, who has played the past two games.

Charlie needs at least one more season to see if he is NFL material. The Browns period need continuity, so sticking with a quarterback and a coach for more than two years would be a great idea.

Other quarterbacks that teams and fans will need to give time on are Vince Young, Matt Lienart, Jay Cutler, Aaron Rodgers when he finally gets a chance to play, and even J.P. Losman still to a degree. Three seasons people, not one.

Because even though everyone wants to see their team start winning immediately, not everything is a quick fix. And without a quarterback who can at least manage your team, there is no hope for a championship.

2006 NFL Picks for Week 10

Week 10 Predictions

Last Week's Record: 6-8 (42.8%)
Season Record: 73-55 (57.0%)
Locks of the Week: 9-5 (58.3%)

I saw small signs of improvement last week with my picks. I went 6-8 versus 5-9 the week before. I went 2-0 in my locks. But as a whole, I’m still horrible right now. Again, this is coming in late, but like last week, I’ll stick to the teams I had already chosen, even if they are getting their butts kicked already.

Baltimore at Tennessee

Are you as shocked as I am the Ravens are losing this game?

Pick: Baltimore Ravens

Buffalo at Indianapolis

The Bills lead will not last. I hope. No, wait, I want the Colts to lose, so go Bills.

Pick: Indianapolis Colts

Cleveland at Atlanta

This is one pick I love being wrong on.

Pick: Atlanta Falcons

Green Bay at Minnesota

Brett Favre’s track record in Minnesota apparently does not apply today.

Pick: Minnesota

Houston at Jacksonville

Haven’t seen the score yet, but this one was easy.

Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars

Kansas City at Miami

Apparently the Dolphins are a second-half team.

Pick: Kansas City Chiefs

N.Y. Jets at New England

No way are the Patriots losing two in a row.

Pick: New England Patriots

San Diego at Cincinnati

Well, they were not my pick for this week, but they were my Super Bowl pick after all.

Pick: San Diego Chargers

San Francisco at Detroit

After this week they will be the worst 4-5 team in the league.

Pick: San Francisco 49ers

Washington at Philadelphia

I am simply going with the home team on this one.

Pick: Philadelphia Eagles

Denver at Oakland

Finally, I can make some locks of the week since these games have not started. And this one makes for an easy choice.

Lock Pick of the Week: Denver Broncos

Dallas at Arizona

Another easy one, I think. If nothing else, Dallas is on the every other week win pattern. And this is the week they win.

Lock Pick of the Week: Dallas Cowboys

New Orleans at Pittsburgh

This would not have been my pick about a month and a half ago.

Pick: New Orleans Saints

St. Louis at Seattle

Seahawks beat them in St. Louis. Only makes sense they do it at home as well.

Pick: Seattle Seahawks

Chicago at N.Y. Giants

The Giants have no one to put pressure on Rex Grossman. The Bears will find a way to win.

Pick: Chicago Bears

Tampa Bay at Carolina

This game probably looked good for Monday Night when they made this schedule. Now it is just a game between two under achieving teams.

Pick: Carolina Panthers

NFL Power Rankings after Week 9

Horrible was the only way I know how to describe last week’s football. Not only did most of my picks go awry again, but the Browns continue to lose and the Bears fall from grace. I guess it shouldn’t come as a shock it was against the Miami Dolphins, who were likely compensated by the ’72 team for their big win.

The evil team that is a guaranteed choke job in the playoffs now rules supreme.

1. Indianapolis Colts – (8-0, Last Week: 2) Beating the Patriots in their own house is no easy task. Peyton and the Colts look great now, but don’t they always?

2. Chicago Bears – (7-1, Last Week: 1) Contrary to what ESPN makes it sound like all the time, one loss is not the end of the world. Rex Grossman has to play better.

3. Denver Broncos – (6-2, Last Week: 4) I am sure the win over the Steelers seemed more like a given than it did at the beginning of the season.

4. San Diego Chargers – (6-2, Last Week: 5) The Browns gave them a scare, but LT found a way to get his usual 180 yards and three touchdowns.

5. New York Giants – (6-2, Last Week: 6) No matter how good this team looks right now, they have to be worried about all the injuries on the defensive side.

6. New England Patriots – (6-2, Last Week: 3) This team will bounce back fine after their loss to the Colts.

7. Baltimore Ravens – (6-2, Last Week: 7) Catching the Bengals while they are weak was a key victory. The offense looks better now that Jim Fassel is gone.

8. New Orleans Saints – (6-2, Last week: 10) The team just keeps on winning, and Reggie Bush really has not been the reason. Amazing.

9. Jacksonville Jaguars – (5-3, Last Week: 13) How David Garrard wins every week amazes me. He may not have fantasy value, but he knows how to win.

10. Kansas City Chiefs – (5-3, Last Week: 16) They came back from the dead and have put themselves in contention for a playoff spot. All with the back up quarterback.

11. Seattle Seahawks – (5-3, Last Week: 15) Not sure if this team will make the playoffs, but at least they win the games they are supposed to.

12. Atlanta Falcons – (5-3, Last Week: 8) Beat Pittsburg. Check. Beat Cincinnati. Check. Beat Detroit. Whoops. Missed that one.

13. Cincinnati Bengals – (4-4, Last Week: 9) My Super Bowl pick is not looking so super right now.

14. Dallas Cowboys – (4-4, Last Week: 12) And my other Super Bowl representative is just as average.

15. Carolina Panthers – (4-4, Last Week: 14) The team everyone else picked to go to the Super Bowl – also average as can be.

16. Minnesota Vikings – (4-4, Last Week: 11) One of the surprise teams from early on is coming back down to earth.

17. St. Louis Rams – (4-4, Last Week: 17) This team is better than their record, or at least their offense is.

18. New York Jets – (4-4, Last Week: 18) Will not be there when it is all said and done.

19. Philadelphia Eagles – (4-4, Last Week: 19) Much like the Rams, in every facet. Great offense that passes a lot, and a defense that cannot stop a lot.

20. San Francisco 49ers – (3-5, Last Week: 29) The worst 3-5 team in the league, but a win is a win.

21. Green Bay Packers – (3-5, Last Week: 20) Beating the Bills would have given them some playoff hopes. They are gone once again.

22. Buffalo Bills – (3-5, Last Week: 28) They caught the Packers off guard, but still are not a good football team.

23. Miami Dolphins – (2-6, Last Week: 30) They played to their potential, if only for the one week.

24. Detroit Lions – (2-6, Last Week: 26) Did they beat the Falcons, or did the Falcons beat themselves? Yeah, I was thinking the same thing.

25. Cleveland Browns – (2-6, Last Week: 22) They contained LT for about three quarters. Too bad football games last four quarters.

26. Houston Texans – (2-6, Last Week: 27) Almost beat the Giants. Almost. Put in Sage Rosenfels, and maybe it would have happened.

27. Washington Redskins – (3-5, Last Week: 31) They got luck against the Cowboys, but when a team is this bad, you take wins however you can get them.

28. Pittsburgh Steelers – (2-6, Last Week: 25) They are almost to the bottom. But the Cardinals need to win before they can fall the rest of the way.

21. Tennessee Titans – (2-6, Last Week: 21) Jacksonville just flat out embarrassed them. Vince Young is looking quite shady in his first season.

30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – (2-6, Last Week: 24) The Saints kicked their butts like most teams have all season. This team is just bad.

31. Oakland Raiders – (2-6, Last Week: 23) Getting shut out on Monday Night Football twice in the same season. Priceless.

32. Arizona Cardinals – (1-7, Last Week: 32) Guess how many wins Matt Lienart has so far? That is correct – a big fat zero.

ESPN’s Power Rankings